2302号超强台风“玛娃”(02W.Mawar) - 强势掠过关岛，严重影响日本 - JTWC:160KT

这是一只猹

数据停留在12z，如果之后没有偷改的话初报ACE总计为56.9575，西太全年截至目前58.1675，玛娃占了97.9%。

红豆棒冰冰

台风“玛娃”已造成日本2死35伤 多地停电断水
链接：https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=1100228629147738056
央视新闻客户端 2023-06-04 14:04:44
台风“玛娃”当地时间3日晚降级为温带气旋。据日本广播协会电视台报道，截至4日上午，“玛娃”带来的强降雨、洪水、山体滑坡灾害已造成2人死亡，4人失踪，35人受伤。相关救援和搜救行动仍在进行中。

据日本总务省消防厅的消息，包括爱知县、静冈县、和歌山等13个县共计232栋住宅受损，此外还有大面积道路被淹、多处桥梁被冲毁。

此外，日本经济产业省表示，受强降雨影响，3日夜间到4日上午，日本关东、关西地区出现大面积停电断水情况。截至4日上午，爱知县、静冈县部分地区的通信仍未恢复。

温暖的好天气

玛娃总结：台风整体上是非常成功的，但也有不少遗憾……
1.西太半年以上没有STS及以上级别的热带气旋，这是相当少见的，所以才憋出了玛娃这样一个极端强台风。从2022.11.3～2023.5.20共199天无STS，上次比这更长的就是2015.12.17～2016.7.4共201天了，于是那年接下来就出了尼伯特那样一个极端强烈台风。历史最长的连续无STS是1997.12.22～1998.8.2共224天，那年更是从1997.12.21～1998.8.25共248天无TY，因为1997年西太的ACE太大了，消耗能量太多了。
2.玛娃维持超强台风强度整整5天6小时，从2023.5.23 14:00升～5.28 20:00降，超过了2012年的杰拉华，那个从2012.9.23 20:00升～9.28 17:00降，共4天21小时，成为2006年新台风等级实施以来，维持超强台风强度时间最长的台风。
3.玛娃的二次巅峰是很长的，维持T7.5的时间是比2000年5月的达维要长的，拿到了JTWC的160节的评价，以及CMA的68m/s的评价，超过了2000年的达维和2011年的桑达，成为西太5月的风王。
4.玛娃的ACE高达56.9(不过JTWC的最后两报有问题，应该降到56.7)，不仅在上半年是压倒性的存在，在全年的西太也是佼佼者，除了2002年的风神，几十年来少有对手。西太如果不靠进口出个ACE50+是很难的，西太本土ACE王是1961年9月的Nancy，那个比玛娃更远洋低纬就C5，但由于没有云图，中间不知高估了多少，从密克罗尼西亚一直到登陆日本连续7天以上都C5，几乎是不可能的。一个超级台风连续7天以上不需要置换(传说中永不置换的超强台风)，巅峰185节对应T8.5的强度，估计是零下90度的对流环配零上30度的眼温，也就是比RAI还强的对流环(那个零下88.1度)配比Patricia还高的眼温(那个眼温28度)，这种强度真的是难以置信(只能是传说)。可能海燕还没有达到西太的极限？Heta的对流配Patricia的眼温才是极限？反正现在普遍认为Nancy77.7的ACE靠不住，高估太多了。
5.玛娃后期因体积膨胀、置换失败，强度急剧下降，期待中的菲东巅峰没有出现，一手好牌打得稀烂！路径也由1808玛利亚的路径调整为转向。按照最初的预报，玛娃在菲东达到CDG+WMG，T8.0的巅峰后在5月走出桑美路径登陆华东，那才叫完美风暴。因为EC预测的5月下旬副高位置，已经相当于常年8月上旬、华北东北主汛期副高的那个位置。最后还是事与愿违。
6.5月历史上唯一登陆浙江的台风，就是6104Betty，截图纪念一下。然而即使是6104，也登陆了台湾，不是一手的浙江大台风。玛娃真的差一点就成功了，成为历史上首个浙江5月一手登陆台风。在6月甚至7月上中旬，都难以找到直接登陆浙江的台风，即使登陆了浙江，也是先登陆台湾、后登陆浙江的二手台风。1946年6月有个台风，像菲特那样90°角高纬西折，最后登陆浙江。但在1949年后，再也找不到一个上半年直接登陆浙江的一手台风了。

327

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 968 HPA
AT 53N 168E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 53N 168E TO 52N 170E 50N 173E.
WARM FRONT FROM 50N 173E TO 49N 175E 45N 179E 44N 180E.
COLD FRONT FROM 50N 173E TO 47N 173E 43N 170E 39N 165E 36N 160E 36N
159E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 36N 159E TO 34N 155E 31N 150E 28N 145E 26N
144E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

327

GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 976 HPA
AT 55N 172E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS ALMOST STATIONARY.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 500 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 18 HOURS.

红豆棒冰冰

日本多地暴雨致3人死亡 近千座房屋被淹
链接：https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=9104698287108679919
央视新闻客户端 2023-06-06 17:04:33
受今年第二号台风“玛娃”的影响，近日，日本多地连降暴雨，多地降水量创纪录、河流水位上涨，并引发泥石流等多重灾害，已致至少3人死亡。

其中，日本中部的爱知县、静冈县、埼玉县受灾尤为严重。静冈县717栋房屋被淹，爱知县273栋房屋被淹。当地政府正评估受灾情况，并采取应急措施。

“玛娃”此前已降级为温带气旋。

THE_FAT_KOMPASU

据关岛日报6月2日报道，“玛娃”在关岛已造成1.118亿美元的商业损失。

Businesses on Guam have suffered an estimated $111.8 million in losses in the aftermath of Typhoon Mawar.
The Bureau of Statistics and Plans looked at a sample of 433 surveyed businesses, including 15 hotels, to estimate the destruction caused by the storm, according to the Joint Information Center.
The damage, by category, amounts to:
• $65,010,843 for building damage.
• $38,378,325 for equipment damage.
• $8,402,190 for merchandise damage.
Due to time constraints, the report does not account for potential lost revenues at businesses that had to shut their doors because of power and water outages.
Of those surveyed, 53% reported damage, 6% reported no damage, 36% were closed, and 4% declined to participate, according to JIC. Of the 231 that reported damage, 191 provided damage cost estimates, while the rest did not.
BSP, along with representatives from the Guam Visitors Bureau, the Department of Land Management, the Guam Economic Development Authority, the Department of Chamorro Affairs, the Guam Hotel and Restaurant Association and the Port Authority of Guam conducted the assessments May 26 to 27, and May 30 to 31.
Businesses that sustained damage from Mawar can apply for up to $2 million worth of low-interest federal disaster loans from the Small Business Administration, according to the JIC. The disaster declaration covers Guam as a result of Typhoon Mawar since May 22, officials stated.
Businesses of all sizes and private nonprofit organizations may borrow to repair or replace damaged or destroyed real estate, machinery and equipment, inventory and other business assets.
SBA also can lend additional funds to businesses and homeowners to help with the cost of improvements to protect against, prevent or minimize the same type of disaster damage from occurring in the future.
"For small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, small businesses engaged in aquaculture and most private nonprofit organizations of any size, SBA offers Economic Injury Disaster Loans to help meet working capital needs caused by the disaster," JIC stated. "Economic injury assistance is available to businesses regardless of any property damage."

桑美和伊欧凯

ygsj24 发表于 2023-6-4 08:00

路径经过的地方海温明显被消耗