印度以西特强气旋风暴“比颇杰”(ARB 01/02A.Biparjoy) - 16日凌晨登陆印度古吉拉特邦

卢碧碧

92A INVEST 230605 0000 11.0N 64.0E IO 15 0

POCKETBOX

ABIO10 PGTW 050630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/050630Z-051800ZJUN2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N
66.6E, APPROXIMATELY 612 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 050217Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
MULTIPLE FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE VERY WARM
(30-31C) AND SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
RAPID CONSOLIDATION WITH A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z支持发展，预报登陆阿曼，巅峰约946百帕

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z亦继续支持发展，预报在阿拉伯海北部明显减弱，巅峰约969百帕

红豆棒冰冰

今天中午ASCAT风场扫到东侧外围

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析T1.5

TPIO10 PGTW 050713
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92A (W OF INDIA)
B. 05/0530Z
C. 11.13N
D. 65.69E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RAE

红豆棒冰冰

IMD今天下午报文表示气旋性环流已经形成，接下来的24小时内可能形成低压区

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AT 0300 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 5TH JUNE 2023. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY
LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE SAME REGION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA {MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) MINUS 900C}. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER LAKSHADWEEP
ISLANDS AREA AND ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY PVER COMORIN
AREA.
47_c8148f_TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK based on 0300 UTC of 05.06.2023.pdf (687.93 KB, 下载次数: 0)

2023-6-5 17:35 上传

点击文件名下载附件

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z继续分析T1.5

TPIO10 PGTW 050944
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92A (W OF INDIA)
B. 05/0840Z
C. 11.03N
D. 65.89E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RAE

ygsj24

WTIO21 PGTW 051300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 130 NM RADIUS OF 11.0N 66.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 66.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.8N 66.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 66.1E, APPROXIMATELY 826 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 050910Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE VERY WARM (30-31C) AND SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RAPID CONSOLIDATION WITH A SLOW
POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061300Z.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z继续预报登陆阿曼，巅峰约954百帕