墨西哥西南热带风暴“肯尼思”(13E.Kenneth)

1007圆规

EP, 95, 2023091712,   , BEST,   0, 100N, 1095W,  20, 1009, DB

---

1. Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located well south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula are beginning to show signs of organization. Additional
development is expected during the next few days and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the
system moves west-northwestward over the central and western
portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

ygsj24

745
ABPZ20 KNHC 171730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of becoming better
organized. This system is currently elongated, but environmental
conditions are expected to allow for additional development during
the next few days. A tropical depression is expected to form by the
middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have changed little in organization since
this morning.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by the middle of the week
while the system moves west-northwestward over the central and
western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located well south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the mid to latter
part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward over the
central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP95):
A broad area of low pressure located well south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle or latter part of this week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward over the central and western
portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



$$
Forecaster B. Reinhart/A. Reinhart

POCKETBOX

WTPN21 PHNC 181430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 113.3W TO 14.7N 121.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091812Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 113.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 133.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 209NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 181213Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS
DEPICT ELONGATED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES
OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BENEATH AN
AREA OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
95E IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (31 C) SSTS AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 95E
WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY WHILE CONTINUING ALONG A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191430Z.
//
NNNN

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP95):
Satellite imagery indicates a broad area of low pressure located
well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better defined. The system continues
to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, and
environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
further development through midweek. A tropical depression is likely
to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
generally west-northwestward over the central and western portions
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



$$
Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP95):
A low pressure system located well southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become better defined today. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased slightly
during the past several hours but is also showing signs of becoming
more organized. Further development is expected and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so. This system
is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward for the next 24 hours,
and then turn northward by late Wednesday over the western portion
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析维持T1.0

TXPZ29 KNES 190016
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)
B.  19/0000Z
C.  13.9N
D.  116.3W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH THE LLCC LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A VERY SMALL COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A
DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased near an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for further development, and this low is
expected to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. This system is
forecast to move slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so
and then turn northward by late Wednesday over the western portion
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake